The paper explores four potential scenarios for the future of urban passenger transport in Mexico: Business as Usual i.e. continuation of current trends with slow growth in public transport, walking, and cycling, alongside rapid increases in car usage and gradual vehicle electrification; Electrification Only i.e. accelerated replacement of internal combustion vehicles with electric ones, aiming for 100% of new vehicle sales to be electric by 2050; Mode Shift Only i.e. transformation of city planning to prioritize compact land use and enhance public transport, walking, and cycling, preventing further increases in car usage; and Electrification + Mode Shift i.e. a combination of rapid vehicle electrification and strategic modal shifts towards sustainable transport options.
The study concludes that the Electrification + Mode Shift scenario offers the most significant benefits, including cost savings, reduced emissions and lower energy consumption. Additionally, this combined approach is expected to enhance road safety, promote economic inclusion, and reduce air pollution.
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