The European Green Deal has paved the way for decarbonizing the transport sector. Electrification of passenger cars is accelerating every year, with double-digit market growth. The shift in public transport is moving even faster. The Netherlands is a leading country in the electrification of transport. Electric passenger cars already amounted to 5.8% of the total in 2022, and city buses are being electrified even faster, adding up to 27% of the fleet. Current market trends will lead sales of electric city buses to overtake those of diesel-fueled ones in the EU this year – marking a milestone for the sector. European cities want to meet their 2030 decarbonization targets, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and public transport operators (PTOs) will have to sustain double-digit annual growth in the electric city bus market this decade.
OEMs’ market shares haven’t been stable since 2015. In these very liquid conditions, it is important to understand the driving forces behind sales in the market of 15,000 e-city buses/year. Such market dynamics call for agile and balanced decision-making from both OEMs and PTOs, who must properly weigh the competitive advantages and risks associated with leading and lagging strategies.
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